On Thursday, the euro tried to extend Wednesday’s gains. Initially, the euro was still supported by ongoing headlines/talk on potential EU support for the European banking sector. EUR/USD held near the recent highs, roughly within the 1.2550/1.26 range. At same time, other news from Europe, if any, was mixed. French labour market data were poor, but the auctions in Spain and France were OK. European equities and EUR/USD stayed well bid. Sentiment on risk improved further as the PBOC cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points.
EUR/USD tested the 1.2625 resistance area at the around the open of the US equity markets. However, a break didn’t occur as investors looked out for the appearance of Fed Chairman Bernanke before the JEC of Congress. In his prepared testimony, Fed’s Bernanke maintained his assessment that the US economy is growing at a moderate pace. He indicated that the Fed was prepared to support the economy from financial trouble, but didn’t give any concrete hints that the Fed was moving closer to more support for the economy. This was a disappointment for markets, especially as Fed’s Yellen had reinforced market hopes that the Fed was moving closer to more stimulus in a speech the previous day. The rebound of risky assets ran into resistance and EUR/USD returned to the mid 1.25 area. After the close of the European markets, the focus remained on Spain. Fitch cut the rating of Spain by three notches to BBB. Remarkably, this action had hardly any negative impact on EUR/USD.
Just before the announcement of Fitch, Spanish PM Rajoy said that the country was awaiting the results of an audit to know the amount needed for the banking sector. As soon as this is available, talks with Europe will advance. This is of course a hard indication that there is extensive action behind the scenes on an EU plan to support the Spanish banking sector. Whatever the reason, EUR/USD withstood the Fitch downgrade very well and closed the session at 1.2561, not that much different from the 1.2582 close on Wednesday.
Overnight, sentiment on risk turned for the worse. Asian equity markets don’t profit from yesterday’s surprise rate cut in China. Investors are apparently disappointed that Bernanke didn’t give the green light for more policy stimulation. The risk-off sentiment puts also EUR/USD under pressure.
In a broader perspective, the price action this morning confirms the recent very fragile, instable sentiment that is dominating the price action on almost all markets. There are simply too many sources of global uncertainty to sustain a risk rally that lasts longer than a few days. As the euro zone crisis is an important source of this global uncertainty, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the likes of EUR/USD are also very sensitive to swings in global sentiment. This is exactly what is happening this morning. EUR/USD is drifting lower in the 1.25 big figure.
Today, there are many eco data on the calendar, but only few of them have market moving potential. Markets might give some attention to the economic forecasts of the Bundesbank. In the US, the trade balance might be of intraday significance for EUR/USD trading, too. However, we don’t expect these issues to have a lasting impact on trading. So, global sentiment on risk and the headlines on Spain will set the tone for EUR/USD trading. With respect to the latter, markets will chew on the Fitch downgrade of yesterday evening. As indicated, this downgrade had remarkably little (negative) impact on EUR/USD at the time of the publication. So, this morning’s decline of EUR/USD might be more due to negative sentiment on risk in Asia on the global economy (Bernanke) rather than on a negative view on Spain. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty on structure and the details of such a plan. So, investors might stay cautious on European risk this ahead of the weekend.
Next week, the spotlights will again turn to the Greek elections. So, EUR/USD didn’t do that bad this week, but there is still a lot of event risk. In this context, we assume that the easiest part of the current correction might be over and that the topside will become tough again. It will be interesting to see whether more details on a rescue plan for the Spanish banking sector will able to prevent EUR/USD from drifting back lower in the 1.2288/1.2625 consolidation pattern. Global sentiment on risk is no help, at least not this morning.
Technicals. Early May, the EUR/USD pair dropped below the key 1.2974 level (mid February low + bottom consolidation range). This break opened the way for a test of the 1.2624 year low and this level was broken two weeks ago. At end of last week, the pair was again in extremely oversold territory. Of late, this was seldom a good reason for a counter-trend, but the poor US payrolls report at least provided an excuse for a small rebound. For now there are no indications on a sustained trend reversal.
Sustained trading north of the 1.2624 area (previous low) would be a first indication that the pressure is easing. This levels was tested yesterday, but the test was rejected. On the downside, the June 2010 low (1.1877) is the next high profile level on the technical charts. Intermediate support is seen at last week’s low (1.2288). For now, we keep a euro negative bias and expect return action back lower in the range
EUR/USD: First test of the 1.2625 level rejected.
Support S1: 1.2495: MTMA S2: 1.2441 Reaction low S3: 1.2411Reaction low S4: 1.2386: Reaction low hourly
Resistance R1: 1.2545: Breakdown area hourly R2: 1.2624/25: Previous reaction low/reaction high. R3: 1.2642 Previous reaction low.
The pair is in neutral territory
EUR/GBP
On Thursday, sterling traders were in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the BoE police decision. During morning trade, EUR/GBP held a tight range around the 0.8120 pivot. The UK PMI of the services sector was better than expected as it remained stable at 53.3, easing fears that occurred after the very poor manufacturing measure published last week. However, the deviation from consensus was not that big and traders didn’t want to adjust positions ahead of the outcome of the BoE policy meeting.
Governor King and Co left policy unchanged and didn’t restart the printing press yet. There is still a decent chance that the BoE will reactivate its programme in the near future if the economy would deteriorate further. Nevertheless, some investors were apparently positioned for BoE action and this triggered a reset in favour of the UK currency. EUR/GBP dropped to the 0.8080 area, even as the euro was pretty well bid due to improved sentiment on risk.
Later in the session, EUR/GBP faced another (temporary) setback as the EUR/USD headline pair declined on the comments from Bernanke before the JEC. However, as was the case for EUR/USD, the downside was rather well protected even as Fitch cut the rating of Spain by three notches. EUR/GBP closed the session at 0.8090, compared to 0.8119 on Wednesday. So, the battle for the 0.8100 neckline continues.
Today, the UK PPI data will be published. Soft UK price data might be seen as making it easier for the BoE to restart QE in the near future. However, price data won’t be the real trigger for potential BoE action. So, the impact of the data should be limited and temporary. We assume that EUR/GBP will follow the global trend of the euro.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/GBP cross rate is showing tentative signs that the decline is slowing. Early May, the key 0.8068 support was cleared. This break opened the way for a potential return action to the 0.77 area (October 2008 lows). Mid May, the pair set a correction low at 0.7950. From there, a rebound/short squeeze kicked in. Continued trading above the 0.8095 area (gap) would call off the downside alert.
A first attempt to do so was rejected two weeks ago and the pair returned lower in the range, but the 0.7950 range bottom stayed intact. On Friday, the pair returned to the range top and 0.8100 area was regained on Monday. This break improved the short-term picture in this cross rate, but there were no follow-through gains. The targets of the DB formation are seen at 0.8233 and 0.8254. We still slightly prefer to sell into strength for return action lower in the range.
EUR/GBP struggling to regain the 0.8102 resistance.
Support S1: 0.8047/51 MTMA/ Reaction low S2: 0.8017: Reaction low S3: 0.7971/50 reaction lows
Resistance R1: 0.8141 Reaction high R2: 0.8189: Reaction high R3: 0.8222: Reaction high +Previous low.
The pair is in neutral territory.
News
US: jobless claims fall back in the first week of June
In the week ending the 2nd of June, US initial jobless claims dropped from an upwardly revised 389 000 to 377 000, in line with expectations as the consensus was looking for a decline to 378 000. The decline reverses most of the previous week’s uptick, which came as a surprise. The less volatile four-week moving average picked up, rising from 376 000 to 377 750. The decline is an encouraging sign that last week’s uptick was probably only temporary in nature. Nevertheless, we should add that the week under review included the Memorial Day holiday which might have distorted the data.
But as the outcome is close to expectations, this does not seem the case. Also continuing claims on the contrary, which are reported with an extra week lag, surprised on the upside of expectations. In the week ended the 26th of May, continuing claims rose from 3 259 000 to 3 293 000, while only a slight increase was expected. As also initial claims surprised on the upside in the week ended the 26th of May, which was reversed in the next one, this uptick in continuing claims might also be due to special factors.
Other: UK services PMI holds up surprisingly well
After a 2-points drop in April, UK services PMI stabilized unexpectedly in May. UK services PMI stayed unchanged at 53.3, while the consensus was looking for a decline to 52.4. The outcome is in sharp contrast with the UK manufacturing PMI, publish a week ago, which plunged to 45.9.
A significant improvement in new business supported the headline figure together with a fall in input price inflation. Business expectations remained above the 50-benchmark level on hopes that the recent growth will be sustained. The UK services PMI holds up surprisingly well, contrary to the manufacturing PMI and the hard data. Nevertheless, the UK services sector will probably continue to face headwinds due to the continued troubles in Europe and a potential tumble in domestic demand after the Olympics.